I think he will.
He will win because UMNO is very weak. PKR through Anwar spouse Datuk Seri Wan Azizah has won the seat even during UMNO at its strongest so no worries to Anwar I think.
I have been to Permatang Pauh for some technical audit exercise many years back and I found how peaceful the small kampong was. If I am not mistaken it was Kampung Ceruk Tok Kun if my memory serves me right.
Anyhow, although the Permatang Pauh by-election will be a David versus Goliath by-election, the result is predictable. Anwar first took the seat from PAS but his legacy continues even after he was sent to prison. Even a well known ustaz is unable to dethrone PKR for the seat and the recent election saw the incumbent Datuk Seri Wan Azizah won handsomely. I am of the opinion that Anwar will have no problem winning the by-election with probably a bigger margin. But the almighty will have his way me think.
Like it or not we must admit that the last PRU has proven that mostly unknown PKR candidates won their seats without any problems to the awe of many. Yet UMNO the leading BN component party take things for granted and said the same will not become in the subsequent elections be it a by-election or another PRU.
While many would think UMNO has learnt its lessons but that are not the case it seems. The non partisan like me see UMNO deteriorating as days goes by. Four months after the election gone and the opposition lead PKR states seems to grow from strength to strength many sees.
The Malays especially has organized their own NGO to fight for their rights a chore used to be of UMNO. UMNO incumbent leaders thought they are doing well when many thought they need to call it quits. Their snub on public calls created uproar. Dissatisfied masses decided to turn their back on UMNO. UMNO weakens. Calls for change are apparent. UMNO needs to create a second wave to become relevant again. Notwithstanding the masses wish UMNO sail on taking little heed about what the public especially those non partisan who used to love UMNO want and leaving them in despair. UMNO loss is PKR’s gain. It is like kawin paksa for many people. UMNO may be thinking that no Malays will ditch them as they are the sole liberated Malay party winning for the Malays and is very fair to its component parties. Yes that was before. UMNO weakness has been vilified by many that so many perbuatan menjolok mata yang sangat jelek mata memandang dan menanah telinga mendengar.
Change is the word UMNO. It is nevertheless a very bitter pill to swallow. But it will only cure you.